Forecast of Radiation Risks of Thyroid Cancer among the Population of Areas of the Bryansk Region Contaminated as a Result of the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, allowing for Uncertainties in Risk Model Estimates

Purpose: Forecasting the lifetime attributable radiation risk of incidence with malignant neoplasm (MN) thyroid gland and identifying groups increased (HR) for population Bryansk region currently (at beginning 2023) living in six areas most contaminated radionuclides after accident at Chernobyl NPP, based on a conservative approach, taking into account dose uncertainty factors parameters mathematical models. Material methods: The model cancer is recommended by International Commission Radiological Protection (ICRP). assessment risks was carried out simulation modeling, i.e. multiple calculation random realizations using normal or log-normal distribution all involved this risk. Based set realizations, 95 % confidence limits were estimated. Unified Federal Database National Radiation Epidemiological Register (NRER) containing reconstructed absorbed doses used as initial data calculation. Results: At 2023, group 37–40-year-old women characterized maximum cancer. According to estimates (according upper assessments), up 19.9 people from may experience development radiation-induced future, 37-year-old proportion can be 30.0 %. greatest predicted Krasnogorsk district region. Radiation-induced develop 40.1 individuals group. men are 10 times lower than women. For 74.5 entire studied cohort, it that individual 5.0×10-5, established NRB-99/2009 under operation ionizing sources, will exceeded. Conclusions: present (since 2023 life), polluted districts continues high developing cancers. Women age 0–3 years time exposure (in 1986) should allocated results work preparation recommendations health authorities improve medical monitoring exposed citizens.